In the 1st quarter of 2026, the estimated cost of vacant housing in Spain, according to an analytical report by CaixaBank Research, increased by 13.9% compared to the same period last year, and added 3.8% in quarterly terms. This is the highest rate in the entire history of observations since 1995, and the absolute figure reached 2,315.7 euros per square meter, setting a record for the third quarter in a row.
The actual data exceeded the forecasts of analysts at CaixaBank Research, who expected annual growth of 12.3%. This dynamic forces us to revise the annual forecast upward: if the trend continues, growth for the whole of 2026 could reach 11.6% instead of the previously estimated 10%.
The main reason for the price boom is the persistent acute imbalance between supply and demand. Over the past 12 months, 141,135 new construction permits have been issued in Spain, which is 9% more than a year ago. However, during the same period, 242,200 new households were formed, and the housing being commissioned simply does not have time to cover this demand.The regional picture is heterogeneous: the highest annual growth rates were recorded in Cantabria, the Valencian Community, Madrid, Aragon and Asturias - prices jumped by more than 15% there. At the same time, the increase in Extremadura was only 6.3%. At the same time, 82% of large cities (with a population of over 25 thousand people) showed annual growth above 10% - the highest share since 2006.
Despite record prices, market activity is cooling slightly: the number of purchase and sale transactions in the 1st quarter decreased by 2.6% in annual terms, although in absolute volume this figure remains the second since 2007. At the same time, the mortgage market is gaining momentum. The number of housing loans increased by 9.7%, and their average amount reached 172.3 thousand euros, an increase of 10.7%.
Analysts note that the share of purchases without a mortgage decreased from 35% to 28%, while transactions involving non-resident foreigners decreased slightly, but still account for 13.8% of the total volume.
With a continuing shortage of new housing and steady demand, experts do not rule out further price increases in the coming quarters, despite a slight slowdown in activity.
Source: CaixaBank Research
