The first and most noticeable reversal concerns the reduction in the number of refugees. While 329,000 people applied for asylum in Germany in 2023, this figure fell to 113,000 in 2025. Experts attribute this both to the tightening of Germany's migration policy (in particular, with regard to immigrants from Afghanistan and Ukraine), and to changes in the situation in countries where refugees come from, such as Syria.
The second reversal is the outflow of citizens of the European Union countries. In 2023, net migration from the EU to Germany was plus 42,000 people, but by 2025 the situation had changed dramatically: 45,000 more EU citizens left the country than arrived. According to IW forecasts, this trend will increase due to the aging of the population in Eastern European countries, whose citizens are returning to their homeland.
The third alarming signal is the growth of emigration among the Germans themselves. In two years, the number of German citizens who decided to move abroad has increased from 74,000 to 97,000. Thus, Germany is losing not only foreign workers, but also its own population, which creates additional challenges for the labor market.
Despite the general decrease in migration, there is also a positive nuance: the share of residence permits issued in connection with employment increased from 13.6% to 15.6%. This suggests that the influx of qualified personnel remains relatively stable even against the background of a general recession.
However, IW experts warn that relying on this trend is dangerous. According to their forecasts, by 2036, Germany will miss 4.3 million people of working age due to the low birth rate and mass retirement of the baby boomer generation. This will create a serious burden on the social system, as pensions are funded by contributions from the working generation.
A source: IamExpat
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