What are the likely consequences for the US real estate market of Donald Trump's presidency? Some American media have spoken out on this topic.
Trump wants to solve the problem of housing affordability in the United States by stimulating the construction of new homes, but other initiatives that the new president announced during the election race may have the opposite effect, experts say.
So, what are the possible prospects?
1. Increase in the volume of construction
"We are going to allocate federal lands for housing construction," Trump said during a press conference on August 15.We desperately need housing for people who can't afford what they have now.
According to Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, federal lands tend to be concentrated in rural areas. Thus, this measure "will not give anything to densely populated cities that really need help the most."
2. Price reduction due to deregulation of the industry
At the end of his first term, Trump signed an executive order to eliminate regulatory barriers to affordable housing: at the federal, state, local and tribal levels.
"This could be a plan for the future," says Dennis Shea, executive director of the Terwilliger Center for Housing affordability.
During his election campaign in 2024, Trump called for a reduction in the number of regulations and permit requirements. The costs of regulations affect the final cost of housing for consumers. According to the expert, about 24% of the cost of a private house and about 41% of the cost of an apartment building are directly related to the costs of regulation at the local, state and federal levels.
3. Rising prices due to the outflow of immigrants
About a third of builders in the United States (31%) are immigrants, according to NAHB. Americans are reluctant to work in the construction industry.
Anything that threatens to disrupt the influx of immigrants will cause turmoil in the housing labor market, experts say. Due to the reduction in the number of employees, wages may rise, which is "most likely to affect consumers in the form of higher housing prices."
4. Price increase due to the introduction of import duties
Trump proposed to impose a duty of 10 to 20% on all imports, as well as a duty of 60 to 100% on goods from China.
According to experts, a duty of 10 to 20% on building materials such as wood can lead to an increase in housing prices, as well as materials for home repairs.
