For the first time in the last five years, average house prices in Dubai have decreased compared to the same period last year. According to the Cavendish Maxwell consulting company, in August 2026, the average cost per square foot was 1,636 dirhams (approximately $442), which is 1.7% less than in August 2025. Compared to the previous three months, the indicator also decreased by 1.3%, which confirms the market's transition to a new phase.
Despite the price correction, the total value of homes sold in August remained impressive, reaching 23.4 billion dirhams (about 6.3 billion dollars). During the month, almost 10,900 transactions were completed, which, however, is 14% less than the July volume. Experts attribute this to the traditional summer lull, as well as broader economic and geopolitical factors.
It is noteworthy that more than 75% of all sales accounted for facilities under construction (off-plan). This indicates that developers continue to actively bring new projects to the market, while the secondary market is showing less momentum. The share of initial sales remains high, which indicates that investors are still interested in long-term investments.
Ronan Arthur, director of Residential Real Estate Valuation at Cavendish Maxwell, noted that the market is moving into a "more subdued phase" after a long period of rapid growth. "Prices are softening and the market is entering a more mature cycle," he commented. At the same time, fundamental demand factors such as the influx of population and Dubai's status as a business center remain stable.
Earlier, the founder of Emaar Properties, Mohammed Alabarr, also spoke about the upcoming stabilization. At the AIM Congress conference, he stated that next year the market will achieve a "good balance" due to the significant volume of new supply. According to him, a possible price correction may range from 5% to 10%, which is not critical for the market.
According to analysts, the short-term prospects will be determined by three key factors: a reduction in the number of new project launches, regional uncertainty and a general cooling of consumer activity. Nevertheless, the long-term growth drivers of Dubai's status as a safe haven for capital and a business hub remain in force.
Thus, the August data was the first clear signal that the period of rapid appreciation of Dubai real estate is coming to an end, giving way to a more balanced market development.
Source: The Week
