According to real estate expert Dobromir Ganev, January is traditionally weak, but the situation improved in February, and a slight increase is possible in March.
Vasil Karaivanov, an economist and lecturer at Sofia University, called the recession not a crisis, but a "return to normal trends."
In 2025, many people bought real estate in order to save capital. Now we are returning to the usual demand for housing for ourselves and for business," he said.According to Karaivanov, the double-digit increase in real estate prices in Bulgaria will stop in 2026. He predicts stability or minor fluctuations: in some segments, a decrease of about 5% is possible. Ganev adds that investments in new construction remain conservative, which will also affect the dynamics.
Mortgage boom
Ivo Dimitrov, a credit consultant, said that after Bulgaria's accession to the eurozone, the mortgage market is showing higher activity than expected. There has been an increase in the number of transactions already in the first months of the year.
One of the main trends is the record low interest rate: now you can take out a mortgage at a floating interest rate of about2.13% per annum. This stimulates demand and indicates expectations for further market growth.
At the same time, most loans are taken for the purchase of housing for personal use, not for investment. Buyers are increasingly choosing new buildings with high energy standards and are less willing to compromise.
According to the rules of the Bulgarian National Bank, the maximum amount of financing is 85% of the value of the property. The average initial payment is about 22-24%, which experts consider to be a stable indicator of market stability.
"When the number of applicants for real estate increases many times, it inevitably pushes prices up," said Dimitrov. He expects the trend to continue in the coming months, and predicts market growth of about 10% in the near term.
However, Karaivanov and Ganev believe that low mortgage rates are not a key factor in the market, as a significant part of transactions in Bulgaria are financed with their own funds rather than loans. For most buyers, according to Ganev, price and location are crucial.
According to experts, the main factors in 2026 will be:
- housing supply,
- the situation in the banking sector,
- income of the population,
- foreign policy and the macroeconomic situation.
Source: Novini
