The Moody's rating agency predicts that in the next 12-18 months the growth rate of prices and sales in the UAE real estate market will slow down. The main reason is the record-breaking commissioning of new housing, which will take place in 2026-2028. However, according to analysts, both developers and banks have approached this stage with a large margin of safety.
In 2026-2028, about 180,000 apartments and houses will be commissioned in Dubai alone. This is approximately 60,000 units per year, which is almost twice the average of the previous five years (30,000-40,000). The greatest pressure on prices is expected in the category of studios and one-room apartments in the middle price range.At the same time, the continued influx of wealthy foreigners and steady population growth will support the housing market and prices.
It is expected that in response to the slowdown, developers will begin to reduce the launch of new projects. At the same time, their financial position will allow them not only to stay afloat, but also to enter new segments: analysts predict active geographical diversification and investments in non-core industries.
Unlike previous crises, today the UAE banking sector demonstrates low dependence on the construction industry and the real estate market.
Forecasts of a slowdown were released against the background of record figures recorded by the end of 2025.
Dubai (data from the Land Department)
- Transaction volume:270,000 (+20% per year)
- Transaction value:917 billion dirhams (about 250 billion dollars, +20%)
- New investors:almost 130,000 people
- Tourist flow:19.6 million guests (Dubai's hotel fund exceeded New York's)
Abu Dhabi (for 9 months of 2025, according to the Real Estate Center)
- Transaction volume: 94 billion dirhams (+43.3%)
- Number of transactions:29,400 (+48%)
Moody's describes the upcoming period not as a crisis, but as a slowdown after abnormally high growth. The market is saturated, supply is catching up with demand, and prices are no longer rising at double-digit rates. However, due to the accumulated liquidity cushion, the influx of population and the institutional memory of regulators, market participants are entering this phase in a much more stable state than in previous cycles.
Source: The National News
